President Trump’s re-election has transformed global trade relationships seemingly overnight. Australia now finds itself navigating a landscape where two of its largest trading partners are imposing tariffs on one another. It wouldn’t be a surprising reaction for Australian businesses to nervously feel like we’ve been here before, but the world has changed since 2016 and this time things are very different. So, what does this all mean for Australian exporters and what steps should they be taking to navigate this rapidly changing landscape?
- Continue to deepen engagement with China.
- Expand Asia capability beyond China to diversify exposure to individual markets.
- Continued engagement with the US but setting realistic expectations.
Continue to deepen engagement with China
Let’s start by addressing the elephant in the room: China. Despite global trade tensions, China has remained a consistent and vital market for Australian exporters. The Australia-China Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) provides Australian businesses with preferential access, ensuring that nearly all Australian goods enter China duty-free. This agreement offers a competitive edge, especially as the U.S. lacks a similar comprehensive trade pact with China.
The recent removal of tariffs on Australian wine and seafood exports further exemplifies the strengthening trade ties between the two nations. In March 2024, China lifted its anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Australian bottled wine, leading to a significant resurgence in exports. Shipments to China reached A$86 million in the month following the tariff removal, and by the end of 2024, exports had soared to $902 million, reinstating China as a top destination for Australian wine producers.
Moreover, China's domestic market presents promising opportunities. In 2024, China’s GDP growth remained relatively strong at 5%. This indicates that despite some headwinds there remains a strengthening consumer base with a growing appetite for diverse products and services. Additionally, government initiatives to boost consumption have contributed to a 3.5% year-on-year growth in retail sales.
However, building a digital go-to-market strategy for China is often considered daunting and complex due to the Great Firewall and the different social media landscape dominated by channels like WeChat and rednote (小红书). Nevertheless, a strong brand in China remains the most important way for businesses of all sizes to stand out from the crowd and build long-term success in the Chinese market. Making sure you’ve got solid marketing foundations is not a step to be skipped in this process.
Expand Asia capability beyond China to diversify market exposure
Diversifying export markets is crucial for mitigating risks associated with over-reliance on a single market. While Australian businesses have made strides in expanding into alternative markets within the Asia-Pacific region, there remains significant work to prepare more enterprises for export readiness across Asia.
There are a lot of positive trends though, for example the share of Australian wine exports to the Asia-Pacific region, excluding China, rose to 33% in June 2024 from 17% in June 2020. While this was likely partially in response to China’s tariffs, it highlights that there is demand for Australian products in the region.
Further demonstrating this, in 2022–23, a record 23% of Australian agriculture, fisheries, and forestry exports, worth A$19 billion, were destined for the ASEAN region. This underscores the significance of Southeast Asia as a burgeoning market for Australian producers.
Beyond expansion, an Asia strategy provides a crucial buffer against market volatility. With global trade evolving rapidly, businesses that can pivot quickly will gain a strong competitive edge.
Similar to China though, businesses must be prepared that marketing channels vary throughout the region. WhatsApp, LINE and Zalo reign supreme for social and business communication, so companies will need to consider how they can adapt their strategy to suit preferences throughout the region.
For businesses looking to enter new Asian markets, investing in region-specific digital strategies and building relationships with local partners will be essential first steps.
Continued engagement with the U.S., but setting realistic expectations
While the United States remains an important ally and trading partner to Australia, recent policy changes following President Trump's re-election highlight the need for Australian exporters to approach the market with renewed pragmatism. In early 2025, the U.S. administration introduced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports without the previous exemptions granted to Australia, signalling a shift towards a more protectionist stance.
As the U.S.-Australia trade relationship evolves, businesses should remain proactive—identifying industries with stable demand, leveraging existing trade agreements, and maintaining flexibility to respond to policy shifts.
By balancing optimism with pragmatism—focusing on market segments less impacted by tariffs and continuing active dialogue with U.S. counterparts—Australian exporters can effectively maintain their U.S. market share while also developing resilience amid shifting trade policies.
In summary, despite a backdrop of increased complexity, there is a lot to be optimistic about for Australia’s role within global trade going forward. To capitalise on these opportunities, Australian exporters must adopt a diversified, multi-market approach. A strong brand presence across multiple regions will reduce reliance on any single market, while agility in responding to evolving trade policies will be critical for long-term success.
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